• With a 2020 population of just over 13 million, Pennsylvania remains one of the most populous states in the nation, ranking fifth in size.
• Most of Pennsylvania's population growth has occurred within its southeastern (Philadelphia) and southcentral (Harrisburg) regions. Cumberland and Lebanon counties have led the state in growth rates since 2010, while Philadelphia, Montgomery, and Lancaster counties experienced the greatest population gains numerically (Figure 1).
• Pennsylvania's growth rate since the 2010 U.S. Census (2.4 percent) is well below the national average (7.4 percent). Among the 50 states, Pennsylvania ranked 44th in rate of population growth since 2010. By 2050, the state's population is forecasted to exceed 13.3 million (Figure 2).
• Millennials, or those born between 1981 and 1996, now outnumber Baby Boomers and are Pennsylvania's largest demographic group.
• Pennsylvania is also more racially diverse. By 2050, the state's non-white population is expected to increase 13 percent, while the white population is expected to decline by the same rate. Pennsylvania's youth are more diverse than the state's adult population (age 20 and older).
• Despite being a “slow growth” state, Pennsylvania is a large consumer market in the Northeastern U.S., with strong demand for travel by people and freight on its transportation system.
• Local communities will need to place a greater emphasis on walkability, and micromobility, and adopt zoning that encourages and helps facilitate multimodal approaches to address transportation needs.

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• Pennsylvania is served by 1,870 linear miles of Interstate highway—the fourth-largest network of Interstates in the nation (Figure 3).
• Interstates comprise only 6 percent of total state-owned roadway mileage yet accommodate 24 percent of all traffic volume. Moreover, these highways account for only 12 percent of total crashes (2019).
• Much of Pennsylvania's Interstate system was constructed more than 50 years ago and needs major rehabilitation or replacement.
• Further, much of the Interstate system will be over 80 years old at the end of the LRTP horizon year of 2045. Pavement reconstruction efforts are insufficient due to funding constraints, adding to the backlog of needs. Interstate funding in general has remained relatively flat since 2007 (Figure 4).
• MAP-21 and the FAST Act¹ established Performance-Based Planning & Programming (PBPP) and Transportation Asset Management Plan (TAMP) requirements. These requirements are driving PennDOT to move toward Lowest Life- Cycle Cost asset management approaches, which prioritize timely repairs versus fixing the worst infrastructure first. PennDOT completed its current TAMP in June 2019.
^{1 Federal transportation legislation, respectively Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st century and Fixing America's Surface Transportation Act.}

• The improvement needs of Pennsylvania's Interstate system are far greater than the funding available. Even with the projected ramp-up in funding to $1 billion annually by 2028, the state will continue to fall short of what is needed to keep the system in a state of good repair. It is estimated that $1.2 billion is needed per year to address cyclical asset management needs on the Interstate system.
• The current backlog of assets needing improvement
• Modernization (fiber network, intelligent transportation system (ITS) expansion, operational improvements, safety and guiderail upgrades, all-weather pavement markings)
• Strategic Investments – selected capacity improvements, interchanges, truck climbing lanes
• Interstate maintenance and related improvements are currently funded at only half the level necessary to keep with a desired preventive maintenance cycle. Further, by having to direct more funds to the Interstate program, resources are diverted from the rest of PennDOT's road and bridge network (Figures 5 and 6).

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• Pennsylvania has a large and aging network of roadways. There are more than 120,000 linear miles of roadway in Pennsylvania—nearly 40,000 of which are owned, maintained, and operated by PennDOT; the rest of the extensive road network is primarily owned and maintained by local government.
• The extensive improvement needs for improving the local system of roads and bridges is also a major problem that was also discussed was addressed in the TROC funding proposal.
• Roadways are the backbone of Pennsylvania's transportation system, particularly in its more rural areas where National Highway System routes provide essential access (Figure 7).
• PennDOT is moving away from prioritizing roadway improvements from a “worst-first” approach in favor of a “lowest life-cycle cost” method. This approach is aimed at making timely improvements when needed to extend roadway life. Lowest life-cycle cost places greater emphasis on timely maintenance for system preservation. Lowest life-cycle cost as a strategic approach is especially important given the need to stretch limited resources.
• The extensive investment needed for system maintenance has resulted in fewer capacity-adding projects. Nonetheless, PennDOT is moving forward on several major roadway projects, including: the US 322 widening in Delaware County and the Central Susquehanna Valley Transportation (CSVT) project in Northumberland, Snyder, and Union counties.
• Funding is inadequate to keep pace with rehabilitation and replacement projects needed to keep the system in optimal condition. Moreover, the increased age of Pennsylvania's roads and bridges minimizes the benefit of continual preservation treatments. As documented in the TROC Final Report, PennDOT's $8.8 billion annual budget must more than double—to approximately $18.15 billion—to adequately address transportation system needs.
• The present funding shortfall poses a dilemma that must soon be resolved. As greatly limited resources are prioritized to the Interstate system to the greatest extent possible, other roads and bridges receive even less funding. This trade-off is untenable and unsustainable. A level of sufficient investment must be established to ensure that non-Interstate roads and bridges do not fall into an overall state of disrepair (Figure 8).

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• There are more than 25,400 bridges in Pennsylvania greater than 8 feet in length, representing nearly 117 million square feet in deck area.
• The percentage of poor bridges steadily increases across all lower-order business plan networks, because the structures are deteriorating faster than they can be repaired or reconstructed under current funding constraints. Given the age of Pennsylvania's bridges, barring a funding breakthrough this trend is forecasted to continue through 2030 (Figure 9).
• As mentioned in the full report, PennDOT has organized its roadways and bridges into four Business Plan Network (BPN) classifications, including: NHS Interstate; NHS Non-Interstate; Non-NHS with ADT > 2,000; and Non-NHS with ADT < 2,000. All BPNs have less than 10 percent of bridge deck area rated poor, and bridges on non-NHS routes have larger share of deck area than NHS routes that is considered in good condition than NHS routes. More than 75 percent of Interstate deck area is fair; only 19 percent is considered good (Figure 10).
• The number of bridges rated poor has decreased significantly in recent years. However, there is inadequate funding to continue the “worst-first” method of prioritization. Transitioning to a "lowest life-cycle cost” approach, based project selection will help keep good bridges from becoming poor and yield additional years of service from existing poor structures, but does not address the funding need gap directly.
• The financial burden for maintaining legacy structures constructed decades ago is extensive for municipalities that are not growing, particularly rural municipalities.
• The highest proportion of state bridges were built during the peak interstate construction period from the late 1950s through the early 1970s, but there are many older bridges still in use. A large number of bridges have also been built in more recent years (Figure 11).

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• Improving transportation operations can be a cost-effective way to improve capacity and improve traffic flow. As Pennsylvania continues to operate within an increasingly constrained funding environment, there will be the need to emphasize improving operations (handling more trips on the existing system) over capacity-building (such as adding lanes and building new roads).
• PennDOT has developed a Transportation Systems Management and Operations (TSMO) Program that is currently being implemented. The program is designed to “advance projects and services designed to get the safest and most efficient use out of the existing and planned roadway network” (FHWA, Planning for Operations Program) and is currently implementing it. PennDOT maintains four TSMO regions (Figure 12).
• There are more than 13,800 traffic signals in Pennsylvania, which are primarily owned, maintained, and operated by more than 1,200 municipalities. Signal equipment that is properly timed and maintained helps improve travel efficiency and reduces the cost of signal operation/maintenance over time.
• The gains that PennDOT has achieved in recent years related to signals and ITS investments could slow or reverse based on the current funding environment. Challenging state and local funding scenarios will likely limit the ability of municipalities and PennDOT to maintain and upgrade their traffic signals and ITS devices.
• Pennsylvania can expect more commercial vehicles on the road and an increased number of trucking distribution centers. This growth will require additional accommodations such as parking areas, queueing zones, and longer traffic signal phases to account for the slower acceleration and deceleration of heavy trucks.
• Emerging technologies may significantly alter how the state's transportation system operates and is designed over the next 20 years. Some examples of emerging technology include integrated corridor management, connected ITS infrastructure, connected vehicle “platoons,” and highly autonomous and/or connected public transit and private automobiles.

Source: PennDOT

Broadband

• There are many uses for fiber optic lines that go beyond connected and automated vehicles, e.g., access to work, school, and telemedicine for rural hospitals. The introduction of fiber can bring immediate benefits even as the technology matures and develops. Indeed, transportation and communication continue to merge in many new ways.
• An area that will be important to understand as it relates to technological advances includes curb side management. As the economy moves toward more e-commerce, the use of parking lanes and public right-of-way adjacent to businesses may change in very dynamic ways from what we are accustomed to current patterns.
• Freight movement will be heavily influenced by improvements in traffic operations and technology, as advancements will improve operating efficiencies and address operator hours-of-service requirements. In the future, some freight may be moved by automated vehicles for long-haul driving, with human drivers for the “first- and last-mile.” It will be easiest to accommodate automation on the Interstate system, with its highly standardized and well-maintained pavement markings and signage and more unified ownership and oversight.

• All 67 Pennsylvania counties are served by at least one mode of public transportation, provided by 57 transit agencies (Figure 13).
• Four distinct types of services are available to transit users: fixed-route bus, shared-ride demand-response bus, intercity bus, and passenger rail. Each mode has unique operating characteristics, customer needs, and funding sources.
• Public transportation usage across the nation has decreased in each of the last four years, even before the COVID-19 pandemic. While overall ridership in Pennsylvania has followed that trend, 15 transit agencies in Pennsylvania have experienced ridership growth. The decline in transit use could reverse in the future due to numerous factors including federal policy and changing demographics.
• PennDOT's Intercity Bus Program subsidizes a variety of services through several carriers, providing opportunities to travel into and outside of the state providing intrastate and interstate travel options (Figure 14).
• State funding for public transportation is essential and will need to increase to help support the state's mobility needs. The July 2021 TROC proposal offers strategies to address the public transportation funding problem.
• Other planning implications for public transportation:
• Shared-ride services may be particularly difficult to sustain coming out of the pandemic, and especially so given other trends such as seniors driving longer, etc.
• Preparing for climate change initiatives is likely going to be an area that receives a great amount of attention in the near term to prepare for long-term change.
• Alternative energy sources for public transit fleet including compressed natural gas (CNG), and battery electric presents an opportunity to further promote transit while making the investments in fleet updates.
• Figures 15 and 16 provide more detail on historic ridership trends for fixed-route and shared-ride demand-response programs.

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• Active Transportation is any self-propelled, human-powered mode of transportation, (such as walking and/or bicycling). Use of the term “active transportation' highlights the growing recognition of the connection between public health outcomes and transportation planning.
• PennDOT's Active Transportation Plan outlines a vision and framework for improving conditions for walking and bicycling across Pennsylvania, most notably for those who walk and bicycle out of necessity rather than for leisure and recreation. Pennsylvania's active transportation network and recreation spaces link communities, connect children to the outdoors, and serve as economic engines for small towns and big cities looking to attract tourists. Improved and expanded bicycle and pedestrian facilities also support improved community health outcomes and ensure flexibility and resiliency in the face of climate change.
• PennDOT and its state, regional, and local partners must coordinate efforts and leverage existing and new resources to improve the current policies, legislation, funding, and infrastructure intended to support active transportation.
• There are numerous plans and programs being undertaken at the county and municipal levels that are increasing the public's access to facilities and activities focused on active transportation. Growing public support is a key factor in future planning and investment decision-making.

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• There are approximately 655 aviation facilities across Pennsylvania. These include 123 licensed public-use airports, including three heliports and two seaplane bases, as well as 230 private-use airports and 282 private-use heliports.
• Of the public-use airports, 14 are commercial service airports (Figure 22), which are also used for air freight; the remaining 113 are general aviation airports offering on-demand air transportation service.
• According to the 2019 Interim Aviation Economic Impact Study, Pennsylvania's commercial and general aviation airports provide an annual economic impact of $28.5 billion to the state. As would be expected, the state's 15 commercial airports generate most of the economic activity, at approximately $26.7 billion (Figure 23).
• Air cargo revenue ton-miles increased both domestically and internationally between 2009 and 2019, by 36.5 percent and 105.5 percent, respectively.
• With estimates of a near-doubling of passenger and cargo numbers by 2036, airport infrastructure improvements are needed, and can be expected to support airport job growth.
• Regarding commercial activity, Philadelphia International Airport (PHL) could face major operational challenges. While the introduction of larger aircraft may result in the consolidation of flight schedules, the airport's airspace remains congested. General aviation and reliever airports in southeastern Pennsylvania help reduce congestion in and around the PHL airspace and minimize delays for non-commercial activity.
• Three constrained general aviation service airports—Doylestown, Heritage Field, and Brandywine—should be upgraded where possible to continue meeting regional demand, especially because aircraft operations in Eastern Pennsylvania are forecasted to grow faster than the state's average.

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• There are many initiatives currently underway that aim to prepare for the introduction of Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAVs) to the U.S. and Pennsylvania's roadways. These initiatives include research and testing of Highly Automated Vehicles (HAVs), public outreach and education, and developing legislation to govern the safe operation of these vehicles.
• In addition to personal vehicles, other roadway user types such as freight haulers are rapidly transitioning to a more automated fleet of vehicles. The freight sector is likely to be the earliest adopter of the technology due to the cost savings and driver shortages. As a national hub for freight movement, improvements in freight transportation will be directly beneficial to the Commonwealth.
• Pennsylvania's first automated vehicle legislation, Act 117 of 2018, allows for the platooning of up to three vehicles on public roadways. Platooning could potentially increase the amount of freight moved by a single driver by enabling the driver to operate a fleet of up to three trucks, buses, or military vehicles.
• An increase in new technologies on roadways will change physical aspects of the nation's transportation network and operations such as traffic patterns, land use, travel volumes, curbside management, use hours of vehicles, and roadway design. Future PennDOT guidelines and publications will need to accommodate these changes.
• The Pennsylvania Automated Vehicle Strategic Plan (2018) outlines four pilot projects that are advantageous to implement in the near term to assist with the shift toward automation. These pilots will need to be implemented to better help identify understand the changes that will be needed to adapt the current transportation system to a more automated future.

• Freight Rail Pennsylvania's freight railroad activity ranks among the leaders across the U.S. by several measures, including the number of railroad companies operating in the state, track mileage, tonnage, car loadings, employment, and total compensation for railroad employees and retirees.
• One of the unique elements of the Pennsylvania freight rail network is the Conrail Shared Assets system. After the acquisition of Conrail by Norfolk Southern and CSX in the late 1990s, a remnant of Conrail remained as a switching and terminal railroad in several regions of the Northeast. The railroad is jointly owned by CSX and NS, and in Pennsylvania it operates on more than 65 miles of right-of-way in the Philadelphia area.
• As a result of the growth in rail intermodal traffic, connections between transport modes have increasingly become bottlenecks in the transportation process over time. Roadside access to marine terminals and intermodal rail yards is critical to the efficient movement of containerized freight.
• The 2020 State Rail Plan (SRP) is built around the following vision statement:
  Pennsylvania's integrated rail system will provide safe, convenient, reliable, cost-effective connections for people and goods. As a viable alternative to other modes, it will support economic competitiveness, smart growth, environmental sustainability, and resiliency, thereby strengthening Pennsylvania's communities.

State Rail Plan - Eight Key Goals

Source: Pennsylvania State Rail Plan, 2020

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• Maritime transportation is the most cost-competitive long-distance transportation mode, and water ports provide the essential intermodal connection between waterways and the landside systems that handle final delivery of goods.
• Pennsylvania's three water ports each function uniquely to move domestic and international commerce across deep water, inland, and Great Lakes waterways. The Port of Philadelphia serves Atlantic Ocean vessels and transfers raw materials in bulk, as well as finished goods in containers. The Port of Pittsburgh serves predominantly river barge traffic carrying dry bulk materials for the metal, chemical and energy industries. The Port of Erie connects the interior of North America to international waters along the St. Lawrence Seaway. Its top freight includes aggregates used in construction and specialized equipment for a growing wind power generation market.
• Pennsylvania's water ports are major economic generators. Freight planning at the state, and regional generators must focus on ways to support the efficiency and effectiveness of our water ports. This includes roadway connections and other investments that help to keep the ports competitive.
• Multimodal transportation access and intermodal connections to port facilities are critical elements of an efficient, environmentally sound freight transportation system. Improvements to first-mile/last-mile truck access to waterfront properties and on-dock rail capabilities should be encouraged, and promoted where feasible.
• The USDOT and the Maritime Administration outlined a policy framework for improving the maritime transportation system in Goals and Objectives for a Stronger Maritime Nation: A Report to Congress (February 2020). The policy framework establishes that maritime transportation is essential to national security and economic prosperity, and requires workforce, infrastructure and industry innovations to serve the nation's interests.

• Pennsylvania's forests, mountains, lakes, and streams provide an abundance of recreation, aesthetic, economic, and environmental resources. Pennsylvania is also home to vast cultural resources among a varied mix of communities.
• The Commonwealth is home to 121 state parks encompassing nearly 300,000 acres, 2.2 million acres of managed forest land, 1.5 million acres of state game land, 19 national parks, and seven National Heritage Areas.
• Rich soils suitable for farming are another natural resource that characterizes Pennsylvania, has shaped its history, and has ongoing transportation implications for both access and protection.
• The aim of transportation entities related to environmental features is to provide appropriate access for the use and enjoyment of these resources while minimizing the harm that transportation facilities and traffic can cause to the environment.
• While PennDOT does not have decision-making authority regarding how land is used, it will continue to work closely with other state, local, and federal agencies to reduce transportation's impacts on the environment. PennDOT's “PennDOT Connects” initiative will need to continue to be used in improving the transportation-land use linkage and ensuring that local partners are engaged as project scopes are being developed.

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